Traditionally, the 3rd-century crisis in the Balkans is viewed through political instability, with coin hoards interpreted as indicators of “barbarian” incursions. Thus, the Great Morava valley, as a key segment of the Via Militaris in the Central Balkans, represents an archetypal example of such interpretation, where each hoard was almost automatically fitted into written sources concerning the movements of armies. Such an approach was criticised by Mihajlović (2010), who introduced the concept of equifinality as an analytical framework for understanding the fact that different processes may generate similar archaeological patterns. The present study re-examines this issue using digital analytical methods, within which equifinality is not regarded as a limitation of interpretation, but as a testing ground for multiple scenarios.
Spatial-temporal analysis was applied to 18 hoards, with particular focus on the relationship between the find locations, time of deposition, and the route of the Via Militaris. Although precise findspots are mostly unknown, requiring the analysis of broader distributional trends, the crucial task was to distinguish genuine ancient patterns from the “recovery bias” within a landscape where modern infrastructure and agricultural activities largely overlap with the ancient route. The analysis is based on the application of Kernel Density Estimation and proximity analysis methods within GIS, supported by Python scripts for statistical processing. In this way, it was tested whether the spatial distribution of hoards reflects the “military logic” of the Via Militaris route or whether their clustering can be better explained by civil and economic spatial patterns.
By excluding the factor of research intensity, the results revealed that the distribution of hoards in the Great Morava valley does not depict a simple conflict zone, but rather a complex landscape of risk shaped independently of military campaigns. The Via Militaris was not solely a military route, but an axis of economic instability.

First Author: Marija Marić

Co-Authors: Marija Kalicanin-Krstic

Keywords:
Coin hoards
Via Militaris
Crisis of the 3rd Century
Equifinality
Recovery bias
Spatial analysis